Analyse aandeel JPMorgan Chase

ANALYST PERSPECTIVE

In our view, J.P. Morgan Chase remains the best managed of the three money center banks in the United States. We think 2013 could see the firm put the financial crisis further in its rearview mirror, as the bank cuts expenses related to mortgage servicing and builds capital in order to comply with Basel III. If capital markets activity and improvements in the housing market continue at their current pace, the stage could be set for a substantial increase in earnings and dividends in 2013.

The coast is never completely clear for systemically important financial institutions, but we think another escalation of uncertainty stemming from European misfortunes or U.S. budget difficulties could create a buying opportunity in this well-capitalized, well-managed bank.

VALUATION

Economic Moat		Fair value		Stewardship Rating
Narrow		USD 53.00		Exemplary
Moat Trend		Uncertainty		Sector
Stable		High		financiële dienstverlening - banken

KEY INVESTMENT CONSIDERATIONS

• High capital levels and slow growth are likely to result in massive returns of capital in 2014 and beyond.
  
  
• The net interest margin is likely to remain under pressure as long as interest rates remain low.
  
  
• J.P. Morgan Chase benefits from an unusually skilled and charismatic CEO in Jamie Dimon, who will be difficult to replace. Few managers have proved able to successfully manage large, complex institutions.

BULLS

• J.P. Morgan Chase achieved a reasonable level of profitability in recent years, despite a number of headwinds. Earnings could improve substantially from current levels once the firm is truly firing on all cylinders.
  
  
• J.P. Morgan Chase did a remarkable job limiting its losses during the financial crisis. Its performance under current leadership should give investors confidence in the firm's risk-management practices, despite the complexity of the business.
  
  
• J.P. Morgan appears inclined to aggressively buy back shares with excess capital--a potential source of considerable value creation depending on the stock price at the time of repurchases.

BEARS

• As a systemically important firm, J.P. Morgan is likely to remain under the regulatory microscope for years to come.
  
  
• It's difficult to quantify potential exposures (let alone losses) created by the firm's derivatives activities, as evidenced by the "London Whale" trades.
  
  
• Future CEOs may not be as talented as Jamie Dimon, and few managers globally have proved capable of running such a large, complex financial institution.
  
  
• J.P. Morgan Chase has yet to achieve truly outstanding performance in terms of return on assets.

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